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Largest Cities Growing Faster Than Surrounding Suburbs
Jul 02, 2009

In general, the suburbs continue to grow faster than cities, and probably will for some time. But the country’s ten largest cities are bucking that trend.

Today’s Journal article notes how cities are growing faster in the recession, while suburbs are growing slower. As with most demographic changes this one is the result of a whole slew of factors, from yuppies who prefer a denser urban lifestyle to immigrants returning to city centers. Immigrants also tend to be younger, and have slightly higher birthrates, driving births in city centers. And then there is the recession and housing mess: Between underwater mortgages, lost jobs and uncertainty about the future, U.S. migration has slowed down at just about every level, including that mid-life move from the city to the burbs.

The central-city population in U.S. metropolitan areas with more than one million people (excluding New Orleans, where recent growth rates reflect residents returning to the city following Hurricane Katrina) grew at an annual rate of 0.97% between July 2007 and July 2008, according to Brookings demographer William Frey. That compared with a growth rate of 0.90% in 2006-2007, and growth rates around 0.5% in the years between 2002 and 2005. It makes sense when you consider suburban boundaries continue to expand, and anyway most of America already lives, works — and reproduces — in the suburbs. Hard to stop a speeding train.

But demographer Mark Mather at the Population Reference Bureau has highlighted a notable exception in this blog. America’s ten largest cities are now growing faster than the areas outside them. That’s a significant change from only a few years ago, as his chart nicely illustrates. It’s worth noting that this was a trend that started before the recession.

There’s an open question as to whether this will reverse in recovery (there’s an open question about how everything will look after the recovery). And contrary to the wishes of some, suburban living and car-based commuting will remain the preference of most Americans. But it’s safe to say for a growing number of Americans — and, in particular, middle class Americans — cities will play a growing role in how they live, work and raise families.



Source: WSJ

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